Mature coffee tree

World coffee output in coffee year 2019/20 is projected 0.9 percent lower at 167.4 million bags with a 2.7 percent decline in Arabica output to 95.68 million bags, while Robusta production is expected to rise by 1.5 percent to 71.72 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organisation (ICO).

ICO in its Coffee Market Report for October 2019 says South America’s production is expected to fall by 3.2 percent to 78.08 million bags, due largely to the decline in Brazil’s Arabica output in its off-year of the biennial crop cycle. While Production from Asia & Oceania is projected to grow by 1.9 percent to 49.58 million bags due largely to a recovery in Indonesia’s output while Viet Nam is expected to remain stable.

Central America & Mexico could see an increase of 0.9 percent to 21.54 million bags.

Africa’s output is estimated to decline by 0.6 percent to 18.2 million bags. Increases in production from Ethiopia of 1.2 percent to 7.55 million bags and from Uganda of 1 percent to 4.75 million bags will likely be offset by declines from other African producers. Côte d’Ivoire’s output is projected to decrease by 4.1 percent to 2 million bags, following an increase of 41.6 percent to 2.09 million bags in 2018/19. Tanzania could see a decrease of 17.9 percent to 924,000 bags in 2019/20 as its Arabica crop enters an off-year.

World production in coffee year 2018/19 is estimated at 169 million bags, which is 5.4 percent greater than in 2017/18. Production of Robusta increased 11 percent in 2018/19 to 70.67 million bags. Arabica production rose by 1.7 percent to 98.33 million bags, as declines from Honduras, Mexico and Peru offset the increase from Brazil.

World coffee consumption

Meanwhile, according to the report, world coffee consumption growth is likely to slow in 2019/20 in line with the slower growth expected for the global economy, and demand is projected to increase by 1.5 percent to 167.9 million bags.

Compared to an average annual rate of 2.1 percent in the previous 10 years, growth in global consumption in 2018/19 and 2019/20 is estimated to be slower. World consumption in 2018/19 grew 1.7 percent to 165.35 million bags, and in 2019/20, it is expected to rise by 1.5 percent to 167.9 million bags.

Global coffee demand

Global coffee demand is expected to be affected by a slowdown in global economic growth, particularly for emerging markets and developing economies, as described by the International Monetary Fund in its October 2019 World Economic Outlook. In 2019/20, coffee demand in Asia & Oceania is projected to grow by 3 percent to 37.84 million bags, and in North America by 1.7 percent to 30.97 million bags. Africa’s demand for coffee is estimated to grow by 1.8 percent to 11.94 million bags, and Central America and Mexico’s demand by 1.4 percent to 5.47 million bags and Europe’s by 1.2 percent to 54.54 million bags. However, consumption in South America is likely to remain stable at 27.14 million bags in 2019/20.

Global coffee exports

Global exports in September 2019 declined by 3.1 percent to 9.29 million bags. Robusta shipments fell by 12.9 percent to 3.02 million bags, and Colombian Milds decreased by 8.5 percent to 1.08 million bags. However, exports of Other Milds increased by 5 percent to 1.98 million bags while Brazilian Naturals grew by 5.2 percent to 3.21 million bags.

Despite the fall in September shipments, total exports for coffee year 2018/19 reached a new record of 129.43 million bags, 8.1 percent higher than in 2017/18. Shipments of both Arabica and Robusta increased in 2018/19, by 12.3 percent to 85.01 million bags and 0.9 percent to 44.43 million bags, respectively.