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We did not spy on Bobi Wine- Chinese gov’t

Bobi Wine

 

 

The Chinese government through its Embassy in Uganda has today dismissed a story published by the US based Wall Street Journal Newspaper which claimed that the Chinese Telecom giant  Huawei was helping African governments monitor and hack opposition leaders’ communications.

An unsigned statement on the embassy’s Twitter account dismissed the story as ‘fake news and totally groundless”

Yesterday, the business newspaper claimed that Huawei is helping Uganda government and other African governments to hack and listen in to communications made by opposition leaders.

In the article, WSJ journalists investigate a claim by Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi commonly referred to as Bobi Wine that the government of Uganda is hacking his phone and listening in to his conversations.

“I cannot talk to you about sensitive stuff on my phone because our conversation is being listened to,” Bobi Wine claims in the WSJ video.

Quoting unidentified government officials, the report claims that the Telecom Giant, Huawei uses its infrastructure which  includes most of the 3G and 4G cell towers in Kampala to enable these hacks.

“The issue of tapping communications is done by government security agencies and they work hand in hand with Huawei,” an unidentified government official testifies in the WSJ video.

In the report, Bobi Wine shared how he side-steps the alleged government hacks using tricks like sending his personal Mobile device to locations other than the one he wishes to go to.

 

However, the Chinese Embassy picked on a key anecdote in which involves an embassy staffer identified as Chu MaoMing, the story claims Mr MaoMing was an intermediary, and accompanied various Ugandan officials to meetings with the security agency in China, where they were shown the surveillance capabilities of the Chinese government in 2017.

The Embassy claims Mr Maoming did not leave Uganda at any point in 2017.

The embassy claims the story has an ulterior motive.

Statehouse in Uganda has already dismissed the hacking claims, with Senior Presidential Press Secretary Mr Don Wanyama saying this story is a continuation of America’s attack on Huawei amidst a trade war with China.

“You don’t need to hack a phone to know that the Busabaala concerts were political” He says.

Huawei is helping Uganda setup a surveillance system that involves CCTV Cameras to fight crime. This followed a spate of Gun killings in Kampala, including the assassination of high ranking government officials like the late Arua Municipality MP, Colonel Ibrahim Abiriga.

The Chinese telecom Giant Huawei also is facing opposition from some parts of the world most especially the United States of America which claims that the company uses its 5G technology to enable China to spy on other countries.

Huawei has denied any allegations of spying and also denied the claims by The WSJ.

 

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Can’t Uganda raise only ten of her own spies?

Former ISO boss Colonel Frank Kaka Bagyenda

 

By Nabendeh Wamoto S.P

 

I react to the bold front page headline in one of the Dailies, 15th/Aug/2019 and ask does Uganda need Chineses’ Huaei and Israelites to hook local hostile personalities among whom is purportedly is Robert Kyagulani a k a Bobi wine ?.

Those who are spearheading the People Power movement are ourselves in government and we have handed significant cost-free power dynamics, first by Parliament that is frequently making anti-population legislations, the Executive that is sanctioning, initiating or formulating many of the annoying laws and to a large extent the judiciary that is entertaining politically instigated cases hence playing in opposition’s much needed publicity and mass support. 

Haven’t our own spy networks in the country up to now built capacity and attempted to link the current political anger (storm) to our own background of 1980-81 where we the youth of that time supported then Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM)’s candidate Y.K Museveni as just as a bait for we had foreknowledge that the angry population and the international community, just like it is at the present time could not co-operate with Obote’s second coming (regime). We were de-campaigned by Apollo Milton Obote and group as bandits and thugs.

It is true that in the minds of we, UPM supporters, there was a waiting Luweero Triangle or any other location but in Buganda region (where anger was maximum) that would provide a salient option for bullet boxes instead of ballot boxes, the latter Obote was so brilliant to manipulate.

Is God annoyed with Uganda that there is not even 50, 45 or just 5 of our own spies to handle simple political animosities within our boundaries just as it was with Abraham at the time of Sodom and Gomorrah. Genesis 18:20 forward and the Lord said, because the cry of Sodom and Gomorrah is great, and because their sin is very grievous, I will go down now and see whether they have done altogether according to the cry of it which is come unto me, and if not I will know. And the men turned their faces from thence, and went toward Sodom but Abraham stood yet before the Lord. And Abraham drew near, and said Wilt thou also destroy the righteous with the wicked? Peradventure there be fifty righteous within the city: Wilt thou also destroy and not spare the place for fifty righteous that are there in?. That be far from thee to do after this manner, to slay the righteous with the wicked: and that the righteous should be as the wicked, that be far from thee, Shall not the judge of all the earth do right?. And the Lord said, if I find in Sodom fifty righteous within the city then I will spare all the place for their sakes.

First forward in verse 32 And he said oh let not the Lord be angry, and I will speak yet but this once peradventure 10 shall be found there. And he said, I will not destroy it for ten’s sake.

Verse 33 and the Lord went his way as soon as he had left communing with Abraham and Abraham returned unto his place.

Can’t Uganda raise only ten of her own spies to depend on Israel and China? 

 (0776-658433)

simonwamoto@yahoo.co.uk

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How to incorporate a company in Uganda, a case in point, a private company limited by shares.

 

By Boniface Okello 

In life, when we share knowledge, we lose nothing but instead, we gain.

A company is defined as a legal entity formed by a group of individuals to engage in and operate a business with a view of making profits.

Companies are generally organized to earn a profit from business activities, though some may be structured as nonprofit charities.

Among common questions people ask include, how long does it take to register a company and what are the requirements?
There are different types of companies. I will discuss one type, a private company limited by shares. This is the most preferred company type in Uganda.

Registering a company is a one day process unlike in the past where the process used to take weeks and months.

To register a private company limited by shares, the following are the processes and requirements:-

  1. Visit a lawyer for consultation
    A company is regulated by laws, among which includes the Companies Act No. 1 of 2012, Laws of Uganda and Regulations made thereafter. Company law is very technical so you need a concrete piece of advice prior to incorporating a company. It is advisable to consult a lawyer to advise you on the process and requirements. Your lawyer will task you to avail him/her with some information such as:-
  2. Your proposed company name(s);
    ii. How many directors will you have?;
    iii. Details of the directors and secretary i.e name, occupation and address;
    iv. What will be the share capital;
    v. Who will be shareholders and or subscribers;
    vi. What percentage will each shareholder and or subscriber hold and or own;
    vii. General nature of business your company intends to do;
    viii. A few objectives for which you are opening a company;
    ix. Your intended physical location for your business;
    x. Which bank(s) you intend your company to open an account and who will be signatories to the bank account. This helps your lawyer to draft a bank account opening resolution.
  3. Subscribers / Shareholders’ meeting
    Upon consulting with your lawyer, as owners or subscribers of the company, have a discussion and get answers to those tasks or questions given to you by the lawyer, then return to him/her.
  4. Instructing a lawyer
    As stated earlier, it is advisable to hire a lawyer to do your company registration. Company law is very sensitive and technical. You need prior and concrete legal guidance. A lawyer plays so many roles such as giving proper and technical legal advice, drafting necessary documents, among others.

So agree on fees chargeable for his/her services. It is affordable. The law does not allow lawyers to over-charge or under charge a client. There is a written law on what a lawyer should charge you. Rule I, Third Schedule of The Advocates (Remuneration and Taxation of Costs) (Amendment) Regulations, 2018 states in details how much you are supposed to pay your lawyer as instruction fees. Do not be over charged and you too, do not under pay your lawyer. Over charging a client amounts to professional misconduct whereas under charging a client amounts to unprofessional conduct.

About choosing company name(s)
Think about the name you would like to call your company and give to your lawyer for instance, Africana Investment (U) Limited. It is advisable you propose to your lawyer more than one name. Availing your lawyer with names will help him/her to do name search and reservation with Uganda Registration Services Bureau (URSB). There is a test applied on names. Names can be rejected on some grounds. The name you choose should be different from other companies already in existence. Your name should also be desirable. A name like Sweet Sex Co. Limited may seem to the Registrar of Companies as immoral and undesirable, hence may be rejected.

Name search and reservation
Upon submitting your proposed names to your lawyer, he/she will apply for name search and reservation by filling Name Reservation Form and submit to URSB for a search. If searched and approved, you make payment of 20,000/= in the bank being name reservation fees. The name is reserved for 30 days within which you should register your company. Reservation does not mean you wait for 30 days to lapse then register your company as most people mistake it. You can reserve and register your company on the same day.

Documents required
On top of availing your lawyer with details he/she requested you when you first consulted him/her, you must avail him/her with a photocopy of the national IDs and one passport for the subscribers. These accompany Company Form S.18.

The drafting, form filling and signing process
Upon reservation and giving your lawyer the information and any other details he/she needs from you, your lawyer then drafts the necessary documents, the memorandum and articles of association and company bank account resolution.

In drafting, your lawyer is guided by the law for instance the Companies Act No. 1 of 2012. Therefore, it is recommended that you let a lawyer handle your company registration.

Your lawyer then obtains certain company forms such as A1, S.18 and 20 from URSB and guide you on how to fill in and sign.

Upon drafting the memorandum and resolution, your lawyer guides you on where to sign. He/She then ensures that they are witnessed by another lawyer.

  1. Payment of requisite fees
    Your lawyer then visits URSB office to do assessment on registration fees payable and after assessment, visits the bank and makes payment as follows:-
  2. Name reservation fee, twenty thousand (20.000shs) as stated earlier.
    ii. Company Form 20, Twenty thousand (20,000shs)
    iii. Bank Account opening resolution filing fee, twenty thousand (20,000shs)
    iv. Stamp duty (depends on amount of share capital)
    v. Company registration fees (depends on amount of share capital). The higher the share capital, the higher the amount chargeable, and vice versa.
  3. Submitting documents for registration
    Upon making the above payments in the bank, your lawyer is issued with slips showing proof of payment. For future records, get photocopies from your lawyer and keep. He/She then submits the following documents to URSB for registration.
    i. One copy of Company Form A1 duly signed by one of the directors and commissioned.
    ii. One copy of Company Form S.18 duly signed by the subscribers.
    iii. Three copies of Form 20 duly signed by one of the directors and secretary.
    iv. Three bound copies of memorandum and articles of association duly signed by the subscribers and witnessed by a lawyer.
    v. A copy of national IDs for the Director(s), Secretary and subscribers/ shareholders.
    vi. A pass port photo for the Director(s) and subscribers/shareholders.
    vii. Original copy of bank slips showing proof of payment of registration fees.

Registration
The Registrar of Companies then peruses documents submitted. If they conform to the legal requirements, your documents are stamped and the company registered. If not in conformity, the documents are rejected and no registration takes place unless you make changes as directed by URSB office.

Documents issued upon registration.
Upon successful registration, you are issued with the following original documents:-
i. A certificate of incorporation.
ii. Two copies of memorandum and articles of association.
iii. Two copies of company form 20.
iv. Company Forms A1 and S.18 are retained by URSB.

Certification
Your lawyer will then make three photocopies of each of the above documents listed in paragraph 11 (i), (ii) and (iii) above. He/She then proceeds to the bank and pays Uganda shillings 20,000/= for three sets of each document. He/She then files the bank slip and the photocopies with URSB office to be certified by the Registrar of Companies as true copies of the original documents. Certification is very important. If you go to the bank to open a bank account, the bank won’t accept if you do not have certified copies. Secondly, in future, you will forever need your originals, so it is better to have as certified copies for other usages.

Acquiring a box number
Within 14 days from the date your company is registered, the law requires that you get a box number and physical address then notify the Registrar of Companies in writing.

After registration, your lawyer hands over the original and certified copies of the above documents to you. The company director(s) and secretary then proceed to any nearby Post Office branch to get a company box number at a fee. A box number is issued instantly. Upon getting a box number, you return to your lawyer with a card issued by Post Office and receipt showing proof of payment made. Your lawyer then obtains Company Form 18 and the Company Director fills in and sign.

Your lawyer then proceeds to the bank and pays 20,000/= for Company Form 18 and 20,000shs for its certification, plus bank charges. He/She then visits URSB office and submits the said Form 18 for filing and stamping. After stamping and signing by the Registrar of Companies, your lawyer then makes three photocopies to be certified by the Registrar of Companies.

After certification, your lawyer then hands over to you two original and three certified copies of Company Form 18. This form is very important. It shows your physical and postal address. Without a certified copy of Form 18, no bank will open for you a company account.

What next?
At this point, your lawyer has successfully registered your company. The transaction between you and him/her is complete. In most cases, some clients begin operating immediately.
However, it is advisable that you proceed with the following steps.

Account opening
You need a company bank account. Visit the bank and open a bank account in the name of your company. There are clients who cannot deal with your company unless you have a bank account, especially in terms of payment. So you need an account. Bank account opening is not free of charge. There are some fees you will pay, which vary from one bank to another. However, when going to the bank, carry your original company documents and certified copies of a certificate of incorporation; company form 20; form 18; bank account opening resolution; National ID for the proposed signatories to the account; and Passport photos of the proposed signatories to the account.

Acquire a trading license
You need a trading license. Some companies upon registration embark on operations without first getting a license. However, for your business, you will need a license, otherwise you will get in trouble with local authorities. A trading license can be obtained from the sub-county, division, municipal council or city council offices where your business is located. You pay the requisite fees and you are issued with an annual trading license in the name of your company. Fees vary depending on the nature of business. Getting a trading license is a quick process.

Acquire a company TIN
Some companies also choose to operate without getting a company TIN. However, it is very important to get one. Visit Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) and acquire a Tax Identification Number. It will help you a lot in future especially for purposes of filing returns. When bidding for contracts, tenders, projects and other opportunities, you may miss out for lack of a TIN. Getting a TIN is a very quick process. So, please get one.

Acquire a tax clearance certificate
This is very important before you start operations. Visit URA offices and be guided. It is a quick process.

Conclusion
A company serves so many purposes. Registering a company is a simple process if you land in right hands. When you instruct a person to incorporate for you a company, ensure that the process is completed and you are issued with all the above documents upon successful registration. Ensure that you facilitate the process. Some clients do not want to fully facilitate the process. Registering a company is now a one day process. Gone are the days when it took weeks and months. Therefore, open a company and do business in an organized and formal way.

The writer is a legal counsel

Email: oboniface555@gmail.com
Cell phone: +256772748146

 

 

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Huawei previews EMUI10, to launch in September on P30

liverpool-super-cup-win

Huawei has unveiled the latest upgrade of its smartphone user interface, expected to feature on upcoming Android Q devices. Owners of the current P30 flagship series will be the first to try EMUI10, available in beta from September 8, 2019. New features include a ‘dark mode’ for easier reading and lower battery consumption and increased support for interoperability with other devices.

Huawei said the update will help connect its smartphones better with other devices. For example, smartphone users receiving a video call will be able to answer the call via a smart speaker. They can also share content on the smartphone screen with a computer, using drag and drop to take documents or apps to the PC screen. Any communication between the devices benefits from end-to-end data security, the company added.

EMUI10 will also come with a more uniform developers framework. This will allow developers to port apps more easily to different devices without major changes.

After the P30 series, EMUI10 will roll out to Huawei’s Mate20 smartphones, Huawei announced at its recent developers conference. The company has also confirmed that the Mate 20 Pro will receive Android Q. The next edition of the Mate series, expected to launch later this year, will come with EMUI10 installed, Huawei said.

Huawei said more than 500 million devices rely on its EMUI each day. Since the user interface was first launched in 2012, 79 percent of users have upgraded to EMUI8 and 84 percent to EMUI9. Huawei expects over 150 million users to upgrade to EMUI10.

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The first TECHNO device running KaiOS is here: Meet the T901

3G smart feature phone T901

 

 

TECNO, the leading mobile phone brand in Africa, today announced the launch of the latest 3G smart feature phone T901, the first TECNO device running on KaiOS , the leading mobile operating system for smart feature phones. This is a significant step for both companies in closing the digital divide by bringing users–previously inhibited by device affordability–online for the first time. The T901 will be available in three color options: gold, blue and black.

“With the arrival of T901 powered by KaiOS, users gain access to apps such as WhatsApp, YouTube, Google Maps, and others on an affordable TECNO smart feature phone for the first time. The phone also supports GPS, Wi-Fi, and 3G, with significant network speed growth and better anti-signal interference performance as well as faster signal reception in call mode than those in 2G,”  says Stephen Ha, Managing Director of TECNO Mobile.

According to Ha, T901 also comes equipped with the Google Assistant, allowing users to operate the device with their voice. With all these features, TECNO is practicing our commitment to allowing the consumers to reach beyond their current limitations and uncover a world of possibilities.

“Launching with TECNO is a significant milestone for both our companies,” adds Sebastien Codeville, CEO of KaiOS Technologies. “The digital divide in Africa remains large, and we’re thrilled to be working side-by-side with TECNO to eliminate it. Visit any African city and you will understand how important TECNO is on the continent, with stores on nearly every corner; we can’t wait to see the KaiOS-enabled T901 show up in all of these outlets.”

T901 is equipped with a hybrid dual-SIM slot which can support two SIM cards and with 512MB +256MB memory for more spaces to save users precious memories. It boasts a 2.4-inch QVGA display with 240×320 pixels resolution, and a powerful 1900mAh battery which enables 25 days of standby time and up to 19 hours of non-stop calling

The new device comes embedded with both a front and a rear camera with built-in flash light, which enables clearer photos even at night and in other dark environments.

KaiOS enables a new category of affordable smart feature phones that require limited memory, while still offering a rich user experience. It supports 3G and 4G/LTE, Wi-Fi, GPS, and NFC. KaiOS-enabled phones come with popular apps and services like WhatsApp, the Google Assistant, Facebook, YouTube, and Google Maps, as well as a store for apps called the KaiStore.

 

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Shafiq Bisaso steps down as Proline FC head coach

Shafiq Bisaso

 

Shafiq Bisaso has stepped aside as the Proline FC head coach for further coaching studies, the club confirmed.

“This is to inform the public that our team manager Bisaso Shafiq will be leaving the country for further studies to upgrade his coaching level. This is a program that was arranged for him and funded by the club a few months ago but has come to fruit now.” Reads part of the statement.

The statement cites the main reason to Bisaso’s unexpected departure is that he is headed for a year-long football coaching study stint in Sweden.

“We are very grateful and thank Shafik unreservedly for his tireless efforts in the past one year that have seen among others. Proline emerged as Big League and Uganda Cup champions, participate in our maiden CECAFA tournament and successfully navigate our first leg of the CAF Confederation competition under his stewardship.

“We shall be communicating about our immediate changes in our technical setup very soon. We wish Bisaso Shafiq the best in his studies and look forward to reuniting with us.”

Bisaso guided Proline to a domestic double, winning the FUFA Big League and the Stanbic Uganda Cup to earn a ticket to play at the CAF Confederation cup.

In their first game on the continent, Proline swept aside Malawi’s Masters’ Security 3-0 at the Star Times Stadium, Lugogo.

The former Express tactician and Ssingo Ssaza team head coach will have his coaching course at Swedish club Skelletea FF for a period of one year and expected to return to his role after the studies.

 

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Another Y.Y bus knocks dead pedestrian in Kamonkoli

Y.Y Bus being towered after an accident days ago

YY Bus number plate UAY 066V has just knocked one person dead in Kamonkoli in town centre, Budaka district.

The dead man, yet to be identified was herbalist from Namanyonyi in Mbale district, according to eye witnesses
The bus was heading to Kampala from Mbale on Mbale-Tirinyi Road.

This follows a fatal accident in Iganga involving the same bus company earlier this week that left two lives dead and several nursing wounds.

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Seven common causes of failure to communicate in business

Martin Zwilling
 

By Martin Zwilling

 

Most business mentors tell me that the single biggest problem they have to deal with in small companies is the lack of open, honest, and effective communication, both from the top down and from the bottom up. Some entrepreneurs forget that talking is not communicating. Fortunately these skills can be learned, and the barriers to communication can be overcome one by one.

Founders have to communicate their ideas and products to investors, business partners, and the rest of the team. Then, hopefully, come customers, distribution channels, and going public or merging with an attractive buy-out candidate. Communication is not just talking, but also listening, writing, body language, and “actions speak louder than words.”

According to a classic book on people management by Professor Derek Torrington, “Managing to Manage: The Essential Guide to People Management,” it is the listener who determines the extent to which a message is understood, and that is shaped largely by their own experience and background. From an entrepreneur perspective, here are the key barrier-to-understanding elements:

Unclear frame of reference. Whenever you discuss any startup matter, the receivers will view it from their particular frame of reference, including their values, their priorities, and their background. The responsibility is on you the entrepreneur to decipher the receiver reference, and do the “translation” of your message to them.

Stereotyping and biases. This is the other end of the spectrum, where the entrepreneur defaults to an extreme extrapolation of the listener reference base. Common problem stereotypes relate to age constraints, gender roles, and cultural performance implications. Effective communication requires compensating for language barriers, no stereotyping, and first focus on performance here and now.

Cognitive dissonance. Psychologists use this term to describe the genuine difficulty the people have in understanding, remembering, and taking action on inputs that they find irreconcilable with the current reality, or with strong existing beliefs. The message heard may be unintentionally distorted, and you must repeat and rephrase often to be effective.

Failure to build relationships. When people are listening to someone with confidence and trust, there is a predisposition to hear the message and agree. On the other hand, if the source is unknown or un-trusted, the message may be ignored or minimized. The solution is to work on relationships first, before attempting persuasive communication.

Technical semantics and jargon. Jargon only has meaning if the symbols are already understood. If an abbreviation or phrase is not commonly used outside a specific group, or experts, it becomes negative communication, with people reading it as presumptive, insulting, or an attempt to deceive. The remedy is to use clear and concise language.

Not paying attention and forgetting. We all have the human predilection to be selective in attention. Attention spans seem to be getting steadily shorter. Add the problem of noise, external and internal, which can blank out whole messages. Pick the right time and place for each message type, to maximize attention and retention.

Information withheld. Sometimes an entrepreneur or executive tries to communicate without full disclosure, perhaps to minimize impact, or due to company policy. This is readily recognized by most constituents, negates the message, and erodes trust. In startups, the best policy is transparent honest disclosure across all levels of the team.

It’s important to remember that communication only happens when the other person really hears what you mean to say. It’s not a one-way street, and there are often barriers on both sides. To be successful, the entrepreneur has the responsibility of overcoming all of these barriers to make the interaction effective. The alternative is a lose-lose situation for both sides.

A climate of open, two-way communication is also the only way to ensure that those who do not understand feel free to ask for clarification. No questions does not always mean that everyone heard the message. How often do you ask for feedback to make sure your communication has been effective?

The writer is CEO & Founder of Startup Professionals, Inc.; Advisory Board Member for multiple startups; Angels Selection Committee experience; Adjunct Professor at Embry-Riddle University and  published on Inc.ForbesEntrepreneur and Huffington Post.

 

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Winnie Byanyima named UNAIDS Executive Director

UNAIDS Executive Director, Winnie Byanyima
 

 

The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has appointed Eng. Winnie Byanyima as the UNAIDS Executive Director and Under-Secretary-General “following a comprehensive selection process” that involved a search committee constituted by members of the UNAIDS Programme Coordinating Board.

“The UN programme dedicated to the elimination of AIDS as a public health threat by 2030, has warmly welcomed the appointment of Winnie Byanyima as its new Executive Director,” reads part of the statement released yesterday.

Accepting the appointment, Byanyima, the wife of Uganda’s opposition figure Dr. Warren Kizza Besigye said: “I am honoured to be joining UNAIDS as the Executive Director at such a critical time in the response to HIV.”

“The end of AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 is a goal that is within the world’s reach, but I do not underestimate the scale of the challenge ahead. Working with all its partners, UNAIDS must continue to speak up for the people left behind and champion human rights as the only way to end the epidemic,” she said.

Ms Byanyima began her career as a champion of marginalized communities and women 30 years ago as a member of parliament in the National Assembly of Uganda.

She became the Director of Women and Development at the African Union Commission, in 2004, working on the Protocol on the Rights of Women in Africa, an international human rights instrument that became an important tool for reducing the disproportionate effect of HIV on the lives of women in Africa.

The UN chief also extended his appreciation and gratitude to the UNAIDS Deputy Executive Director, Gunilla Carlsson, for her service as the Executive Director, following the departure of former head, Michel Sidibé, earlier this year.

Ms Byanyima’s competitor for the job included • Salim Abdool Karim, director of the Centre for the AIDS Program of Research in South Africa or CAPRISA.
• Sani Aliyu, director general of the Nigerian National Agency for the Control of AIDS or NACA.
• Chris Beyrer, professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
• Winnie Byanyima, executive director of Oxfam International.
• Bernard Haufiku, former minister of health and social services of Namibia.

She also a wife to Uganda’s opposition leader, Dr. Kizza Besigye who had stood against incumbent Yoweri Museveni.

 

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No-deal Brexit not inevitable: Unpredictable saga could involve Queen

Charles Grant
 

By Charles Grant

 

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he will not reopen Brexit negotiations unless the European Union (EU) agrees to scrap the Irish backstop. The EU says any deal with Britain must be based on the current withdrawal agreement, including the backstop. With neither side willing to blink, Britain seems set to leave the EU on 31 October.

That is the default option. To prevent Brexit on that date, the UK parliament must either: revoke Article 50, for which there is presently no secure majority; pass a deal, seemingly doubtful in the time available; or compel the government to seek an Article 50 extension, to which the EU must agree.

At the moment Johnson seems unlikely to soften his stance on the EU. But could he in the last resort do so? Some people close to Johnson seem to believe sincerely that the EU fears no deal and that it will cave in at the last minute. But that will not happen.

The EU is resigned to no deal and united in its support for the Irish and maintaining the backstop. Abandoning it would mean accepting a hard border in Ireland for the long term and thus – in the view of most EU governments – endangering peace on the island.

As the end of October approaches, Johnson will realise the EU is not going to budge. He’ll watch financial markets falling, shoppers panic-buying, foreign investors squealing, farmers threatening to slaughter livestock, tensions rising in Northern Ireland and Scottish nationalism surging. One idea floated by Johnson’s officials is to hold an election on 1 November – right after Brexit but before the border chaos becomes too serious. But Johnson should not count on the country functioning smoothly the day after Brexit.

It has become clichéd to say if Johnson goes into the next election without having delivered Brexit, the Conservatives are finished. But come October, the pros and cons of the choices available to him could look different than today.

If Johnson did ask the EU for a compromise, it would be willing to oblige. But if the parties dressed up former Prime Minister Theresa May’s package to make it look prettier, it would still struggle to pass the House of Commons.

If Johnson himself will not stop a no-deal exit, members of parliament will have to take it upon themselves. Though the anti-no-dealers have a clear majority in the Commons, they disagree on tactics. Many want to focus on amending legislation to take control of the parliamentary agenda. That would allow backbenchers to propose a bill requiring the government to seek an Article 50 extension. Two prominent backbenchers – Labour’s Yvette Cooper and the Conservatives’ Oliver Letwin – succeeded with a similar exercise in April, with a majority of one vote. The ranks of those willing to act against no deal have since swelled.

If MPs cannot find an opportunity to amend legislation, they will look to Standing Order 24, which enables the opposition to hold an emergency debate on a motion which may be amendable. An amendment can then enable MPs to take over parliament’s agenda on a specified date, leading to legislation on an extension. But if agenda-seizing methods fail, more MPs will focus on motions of no confidence. As the government has a majority of only one, it could easily be defeated.

The timing of the motion matters: if passed in early September, Johnson could find it difficult to postpone an election until after the UK had left the EU. But in early September opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn could not be sure of winning a vote against Johnson. Some opposition MPs would not back a motion of no confidence: many Liberal Democrats and independent MPs detest Corbyn. More pro-EU Conservatives would be willing to vote for a motion of no confidence in October, once other options for preventing no deal had been exhausted.

Defeat for the government would not in itself prevent no deal. The Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011 specifies a two-week period before an election must be called. If another government emerges in those two weeks, with the confidence of house, an election need not happen.

As 31 October approaches, Remainers may start to work together more coherently. Corbyn appears to want both an election and to prevent a no-deal Brexit, so it may be hard for him to resist a short-lived ‘government of national unity’ that would deliver both objectives.

But even if there was a majority for such a government, what if Johnson refused to resign and set a date for an election after 31 October? His advisers have indicated he could do just that. The FTPA does not say explicitly that a prime minister who loses a confidence vote must resign. Instead, there is the unwritten convention (in Britain’s uncodified constitution) that they should do so. Johnson could argue he was entitled to hang on.

Even if no national unity government emerged, Johnson could set a date for an election with a longer-than-normal delay, to ensure it happened post-Brexit. Or he could attempt to prorogue parliament, so MPs could not seize the agenda. Anti-EU campaigner Andrew Roberts has urged Johnson to breach another convention: he should tell the Queen not to sign any bill passed by parliament that seeks to stop a no-deal Brexit.

One official who has worked with Buckingham palace says he thinks its top priority would be not to become involved. The Queen sees her role as unifying the country; taking sides on Brexit would split it. She wouldn’t want to go against the advice of her prime minister. However, her officials would do their best to avoid a difficult situation by nudging Johnson away from steps that would breach constitutional conventions.

Many of the above scenarios lead towards an election. But are the signals coming out of Downing Street – that the election should not be held until after Brexit on 31 October – entirely sincere? Would it not suit Johnson if parliament forced him to extend Article 50, so the election took place with Britain still inside the EU? Then he could blame MPs for delaying Brexit; a campaign focused on ‘The People v. Parliament’ would help him to repulse the Brexit Party. In this scenario Johnson would avoid a constitutional crisis and the Queen’s possible involvement. If he secured a majority he would be in a strong position to preside over a hard Brexit, or indeed to repackage the withdrawal agreement and push it through parliament.

But Johnson cannot be sure of victory. The Brexit Party will still siphon off votes from Conservative candidates across the country. The Conservatives will surely lose seats in Scotland to the Scottish National Party, in the South West and parts of Wales to the Lib Dems, and in London and elsewhere in the South to Labour and the Lib Dems. The Conservatives will have to win swathes of Leave-voting Labour seats in the North, Midlands and South Wales to surpass their current tally.

So, nobody can say with much confidence whether a no-deal Brexit can be stopped. The outcome of this saga will not depend on the EU’s actions, which are predictable; but on the decisions and views of Johnson and Corbyn, just possibly the Queen’s advisers, and quite probably the British people – none of which can be predicted with certainty.

Charles Grant is Director of the Centre for European Reform.

 

 

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