Debating and discussing African migrations, youth and jobs, the 2019 Ibrahim Governance Weekend, held in Abidjan 5-7 April, heard that the global view of African migrations urgently needs to be reset since distorted data leads to inadequate policies. African migrations present an opportunity for both the continent and the world, and yet today this topic triggers an emotional reaction and is generally misunderstood.

Driven by the need for jobs and economic opportunity, most African migrations begin and end on the continent. Their arrival in host countries is welcomed, with many Africans saying they would like more migrants in their country. The number travelling beyond Africa are comparatively few, totalling only 14 per cent of the global migrant population in 2017, significantly less than Asia, 41% and Europe, 24 per cent.

Mo Ibrahim, Chairman of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, said: “Migration in Africa, and around the world, is largely about aspiration, not desperation. Africans leaving their home countries are looking for the chance to work and contribute to their host countries. African governments should welcome migrants while ensuring that their own citizens – our continent’s greatest asset – have the education and economic opportunities they deserve. Now is the time to take action before it’s too late for our young people.”

The Ibrahim Forum brings together a powerful coalition of African and global leaders to discuss an issue that is critical to the continent’s future. The 2019 Ibrahim Forum focused on the Foundation’s latest report, Africa’s Youth: Jobs or Migration? In recognition of the importance of young people to Africa’s development, this year the Foundation welcomed back the Now Generation Forum, a meeting of young leaders from 35 countries whose recommendations fed into the discussion.

The first session of the Ibrahim Forum – Setting the picture right on African migrations – explored African perspectives on migration, highlighting that human mobility is not a recent phenomenon but a dynamic that has contributed to progress over many centuries.

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, former President of Liberia, 2017 Ibrahim Laureate and Chairperson of the High-Level Panel on International Migration in Africa, said: “In recent times, there has been a lot of movement of young Africans across borders in search of opportunity. This has created a fear and a very emotional response…but there is no migrant crisis. The majority of those who cross borders do so legally; they carry with them capital, knowledge, skills, technology; they pay taxes; and they form a sizeable part of the GDP of their host countries.”

Vera Songwe, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, highlighted how a lack of economic opportunity is driving Africans to leave their home countries: “The conversation on migration is essentially a conversation on governance and what our leaders need to do to ensure Africans do not go outside the continent. 80 per cent of those Africans migrating say they are doing do because they don’t have jobs, because our countries don’t have the right business or policy environments.”

In the second session – The African youth bulge confronted by jobless growth – panellists discussed the current and future challenges of the African job market, including the unexploited potential of agriculture and the changes expected from the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Abdourahmane Cissé, Minister of Petroleum, Energy and Renewable Energy of Côte d’Ivoire, outlined his country’s efforts to create economic opportunities for its youth. “Innovation is key, yes, but if you want people to innovate, you need to ensure they have access to the necessary resources, particularly information technology. In Côte d’Ivoire, we have focussed on vocational training and technical skills, and invested in areas that help students access jobs, including creating tax incentives to provide internships and hire recent graduates. We need to see many more young people engaged in politics so that they can be part of the discussions about their future.”

Hailemariam Desalegn Boshe, former Prime Minister of Ethiopia, said: “Our youth are deeply dissatisfied. They feel economically, socially and politically marginalised. African leaders and civil society should address these issues with a sense of urgency. Let’s look at the education and skills that our young people actually need, focussing on what is necessary for the current economic situation in Africa.”

Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank Group, highlighted the importance of involving more young Africans in agriculture: “We always talk about the great potential of our continent, but nobody can eat potential. We need to take this great demographic asset that we have – our young people – and turn it into an economic powerhouse, both for ourselves and the rest of the world. We’ve got to get young people into agriculture and create a new group of ‘agri-preneurs’”.

Natasha Kimani, Head of Programmes at Well Told Story and a member of the Now Generation Forum, argued for a fresh perspective. “We need to change how we talk about young people and how we talk to young people. Instead of assuming we know what they need, why don’t we ask them? And as young people, if we want to thrive, we must hold our governments accountable. We need to put our leaders on the spot and ask them difficult questions. Don’t be afraid to challenge authority and ask for what you deserve – because the more you ask, the more you get!”

In the third session – The way forward: bolstering mobility, updating skills, sharing responsibilities – panellists explored options to strengthen the capacity of the continent to make the most of its greatest resource, its human capital, and ensure no one if left behind.

Arancha González, Executive Director of the International Trade Centre, said: “The countries where mobility works are the countries which manage mobility, that don’t leave mobility purely to market forces…We have to recognise that migrants are often different – different in religion, culture, colour, sexual preference – this also needs to be discussed and managed. Mobility introduces diversity and diversity means strength.”

Festus Mogae, former President of Botswana and 2008 Ibrahim Laureate, stressed the importance of responsible leadership in managing migration. “African leaders and governments should go out of their way to explain to their populations that migrants often benefit the countries into which they migrate, correcting the misperception that migrants are taking local jobs.”

Closing the session, Oumar Seydi, Africa Director of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, highlighted the challenge of population growth. “The elephant in the room is family planning. If you look at the data, you see that the countries with the highest population growth have also tended to be the poorest ones. In our experience, investing in family planning is one of the most effective tools that countries have to break the poverty cycle. It enables women to plan their futures and fulfil their potential.”

The 2019 Ibrahim Governance Weekend opened with a Leadership Ceremony, celebrating progress in African leadership and governance. The evening featured a special tribute to Kofi Annan, reflecting on the legacy he left and the inspiration he continues to be. Thoughts and memories were shared by, among others: Mo Ibrahim, Chairman of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation; H.E. Amina J. Mohammed, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations; Kojo Annan; Mark Malloch-Brown, former United Nations Deputy Secretary-General; and Bono.

Addressing over 1,200 guests, President Alassane Ouattara of Ivory Coast said: “Kofi Annan was more than a friend of Côte d’Ivoire, he was the son of our country and a brother who shared our pain. The name of Kofi Annan is tightly linked to the return of peace and security in our country. He was determined not to let our country sink and did not hesitate to use the full authority of the United Nations and his exceptional ability for negotiation. This nation owes him a lot.”

The weekend wrapped up with a star-studded music concert at the Palais de la Culture featuring some of Côte d’Ivoire’s and Africa’s biggest stars, including: Fally Ipupa, Youssou N’Dour, Serge Beynaud and Safarel Obiang. Addressing the crowd of young Ivorians, Mo Ibrahim said: “You are the future”.

The 2019 Ibrahim Forum discussed latest findings from the Ibrahim Forum Report, including:

· In 2017, migrants represented only 3.4 per cent of the global population, a marginal increase from 2.9 per cent in 1990

· African migrants in 2017 amounted to 2.9 per cent of the continent’s population

· African migrations represented around 14 per cent of the global migrant population, much less than Asia and Europe’s shares (41 per cent and 24 per cent) in 2017

· In 2017, the top ten bilateral corridors in Africa accounted for less than the single bilateral corridor between Mexico and the US

· Africa itself hosts a growing part of the global migrant population (+67 per cent since 2000)

· Rwanda is the third most welcoming country to migrants at a world level. Egypt is the least accepting on the continent

· More than 70 per cent of sub-Saharan African migrants move within the continent

· South Africa receives the largest share of African migrants, followed by Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda

· Almost 80 per cent of African migrants are driven by the hope for better economic or social prospects

· Migrants spend approximately 85 per cent of their incomes in their destination country

· The estimated contribution of migrants to local GDPs is estimated at 19 per cent in Côte d’Ivoire, 13 per cent in Rwanda and 9 per cent in South Africa.

· Insecurity is not the major factor for African migrations: in 2017, refugees accounted for only around 20 per cent of African migrants

· Almost 90 per cent of African refugees stay within the continent

· Italy, Germany and France altogether host less than 4 per cent of African refugees

· Around 60 per cent of Africa’s population is currently less than 25 years old, and more than a third is aged between 15-34

· Between 2019 and 2100, Africa’s youth is expected to grow by 181.4 per cent, while Europe’s will shrink by 21.4 per cent and Asia’s by 27.7 per cent

· Only half of those who would qualify for lower secondary education in sub-Saharan Africa, are enrolled

· The average match between education and skills needed by businesses is worse in Africa than in the rest of the world

· Unemployment is considered by far the most important problem by African youth

· In Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa at least 75 per cent of the youth think that their governments do not care about their needs.

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Growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2018 is estimated at 2.3 per cent, 0.4 percentage points lower than our October estimate, and down from 2.5 per cent in 2017, according to the April issue of Africa’s Pulse.

This slower-than-expected growth comes from both global and domestic factors.

Globally: a volatile economic and financial environment, including trade tensions, protectionism, and recovering but uncertain commodity prices is having obvious negative impacts on some African economies.

Domestically: macroeconomic instability including poorly managed debt, inflation, and deficits; political and regulatory uncertainty; and fragility are holding back African growth.

We expect growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to recover to 2.8 percent in 2019 supported by exports, private consumption, a rebound in agriculture, and an increase in mining production and services in some countries.

Although regional growth is expected to rebound in 2019, it will have remained below 3 percent since 2015.

A closer look:

In Nigeria, growth reached 1.9 per cent in 2018, up from 0.8 per cent in 2017, reflecting a modest pick-up in the non-oil economy.

South Africa came out of recession in Q3 of 2018, but growth was subdued at 0.8 per cent over the year, as policy uncertainty held back investment.

Angola, the region’s third largest economy, remained in recession, with growth falling sharply as oil production stayed weak.

Growth picked up in some resource-intensive-countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Niger, as stronger mining production and commodity prices boosted activity alongside a rebound in agricultural production and public investment in infrastructure.

In others, like Liberia and Zambia, growth was subdued, as high inflation and elevated debt levels continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

In the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, a fragile recovery continued as reform efforts to reduce fiscal and external imbalances slowed in some countries.

Non-resource-intensive economies such as Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and several in the West African Economic and Monetary Union, including Benin and Côte d’Ivoire recorded solid economic growth in 2018.

Special Topic: Fragility

More than half of the world’s fragile countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. Two-thirds of the underperforming countries in terms of growth in the region are fragile.

Fragility in a handful of countries is costing the entire continent over half a percentage point of growth per year. That is 2.6 percentage points over five years.

This is not just an economic issue. Fragility is not only keeping African countries from creating jobs and reducing poverty as quickly as they could; it also comes at a cost in terms of social cohesion and the social contract between citizens and governments.

The good news is, we know that countries can successfully escape fragility. Two of the fastest growing economies on the continent were once fragile: Ethiopia and Rwanda.

There are lessons to be learned from these countries. They improved their policy environment, strengthened their institutions, and strengthened state capacity to deliver services to their people. This has led to stronger growth and a more attractive climate for private investors.

As the drivers and nature of fragility evolve, so too must the approach to overcoming it. Countries still must focus on strong domestic institutions, rule of law, and state capacity, but it is increasingly clear that at the same time, solutions must be collective, not country-by-country.

In corridors such as the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, the Lake Chad region, and the Great Lakes, the perpetrators of violence and terrorism often cross borders, and people are forced to flee that violence either within or across borders. Drought and floods do not respect national borders, and nomads move irrespective of borders.

Tackling fragility will require countries to work together to find lasting solutions for a more stable and secure future.

Digital Transformation

Digital Transformation will unlock new pathways for inclusive growth, innovation, job creation, service delivery, and poverty reduction in Africa

While Africa has made great strides in mobile connectivity, the continent lags the rest of the world in access to broadband. There is still a long way to go.

Across the entire African continent, including sub-Saharan and North Africa, the digital transformation could increase growth per capita by 1.5 percentage points per year and reduce the poverty headcount by .7 percentage points per year.

The benefits of the digital transformation in sub-Saharan Africa are even higher: it can increase growth by nearly two percentage points per year and reduce poverty by nearly one percentage point per year.

When paired with stronger investments in human capital, impacts across the African continent can be more than doubled: 3.8-4 percentage points of growth and 1.9-2 percentage points poverty reduction per year.

The digital economy will create more jobs, encourage entrepreneurship for youth, raise productivity of farmers, bring more women into the labor force, and create new markets – all of which boosts growth.

For those growth dividends to materialize, it is critical to create much-needed digital infrastructure; put the right regulatory frameworks in place; to invest in skills that allow workers, entrepreneurs, and government officials to seize opportunities in the digital world; and to build accountable institutions that use the internet to empower citizens.

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