Uganda’s economy maintained strong momentum in December 2025, supported by rising business confidence, stable prices and robust export performance, according to the latest economic indicators.
High-frequency data revealed continued expansion in economic activity, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 54.0 in December from 53.8 in November, comfortably above the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.
Similarly, the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) continued its upward trajectory, reaching 181.48 in November, up from 180.41 in October, reflecting sustained improvement in overall economic activity. The growth was further supported by increased optimism among investors and business operators, as measured by the Business Tendency Index (BTI), which rose to 57.20 in December from 56.20 in November.
“Economic activity and perceptions about doing business in Uganda continued to strengthen, supported by improving business confidence and favorable demand conditions,” the report highlighted.
Price stability remained a hallmark of the economy, with annual headline inflation holding steady at 3.1 percent in December. The moderation in core inflation, particularly in services, offset increases in food crops and Energy, Fuel and Utilities (EFU) costs, keeping overall inflation stable.
The Ugandan shilling also maintained relative stability against the US dollar, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs3,575.23/USD, largely unchanged from Shs3,575.14/USD in November.
Trade figures showed marked improvement, with the merchandise trade deficit narrowing by 32.4 percent, declining from $343.7 million in November 2024 to $232.3 million in November 2025. The improvement was largely driven by stronger export growth, which surged 70.4 percent from $698.46 million in November 2024 to $1,190.51 million in November 2025. Key contributors to the export growth included coffee and gold, which saw increased receipts over the period.
“Stronger export performance has significantly contributed to narrowing the trade deficit, reflecting a positive shift in Uganda’s trade dynamics,” the report noted.
Overall, the latest data paints a picture of an economy expanding steadily, underpinned by rising business confidence, robust exports, stable currency, and low inflation, factors that could sustain growth into the first quarter of 2026.
