Uganda’s economy continued to register steady improvement in November 2025, supported by stronger private sector activity, easing inflationary pressures, and a sharp rise in export earnings, according to the Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development’s latest Performance of the Economy Report.
The report indicates that economic activity remained on an upward trajectory, as reflected in improvements across several high-frequency indicators that track real-time performance of the economy.
“Economic activity continued to improve in November 2025, as reflected by the upward trends in high-frequency indicators such as the Purchasing Manager’s Index and the Composite Index of Economic Activity,” the Ministry stated.
The Purchasing Manager’s Index rose to 53.8 in November from 53.4 recorded in October, signaling improved business conditions in the private sector. The increase was driven by higher new orders, rising output, and improved supplier delivery times, particularly in manufacturing, wholesale trade, and services.
“The improvement in the Purchasing Manager’s Index signifies expansion in business activity, with firms reporting increased demand and higher production levels,” the report noted.
Similarly, the Composite Index of Economic Activity rose to 183.50 in October 2025 from 182.40 in September, confirming a sustained recovery in overall economic performance. The index aggregates data from electricity generation, vehicle registrations, cement production and trade volumes, among others.
Business confidence remained firmly positive during the period, with the Business Tendency Index standing at 57.20 in November, well above the neutral 50 mark.
“Perceptions about doing business in Uganda remained positive, with optimism mainly expressed in the manufacturing, wholesale trade and services sectors,” the Ministry said, adding that firms expect continued growth in sales, employment and investment in the near term.
Inflation continued to ease, further strengthening the macroeconomic environment. Annual headline inflation declined to 3.1 percent in November from 3.4 percent in October, remaining comfortably within the Bank of Uganda’s medium term target.
The slowdown in inflation was largely driven by a reduction in food crop inflation, which fell to 4.0 percent from 6.1 percent in the previous month, supported by increased food supply following improved harvests. Core inflation also eased slightly to 3.2 percent.
“The decline in headline inflation was attributed to lower food crop prices and a moderation in core inflation, reflecting stable exchange rates and prudent monetary policy,” the report stated.
Uganda’s external sector performance improved significantly, with a sharp reduction in the merchandise trade deficit. On a year-to-year basis, the trade deficit narrowed by 70.4 percent, improving from $251.56 million in October 2024 to $74.46 million in October 2025.
This improvement was largely driven by a strong rebound in export earnings, which more than offset the increase in imports during the same period.
“Uganda’s merchandise exports nearly doubled, increasing by 94.4 percent from $769.62 million in October 2024 to $1,496.45 million in October 2025,” the Ministry reported.
The growth in exports was mainly attributed to higher earnings from coffee, gold, crude oil, related agricultural products, including simsim, palm oil, and sunflower, as well as industrial products, cocoa beans, and flowers.
While imports also increased by $549.74 million, reflecting higher demand for capital goods and intermediate inputs, the pace of export growth remained significantly stronger, resulting in an improved trade balance.
The Ministry noted that the positive performance of exports underscores the benefits of ongoing efforts to enhance value addition, diversify export products and expand access to regional and international markets.
Overall, the November 2025 economic performance reflects growing resilience of Uganda’s economy amid global uncertainties, supported by sound macroeconomic management, stable prices and improving business confidence.
“The continued improvement in economic indicators points to strengthening growth momentum and supports the outlook for sustained economic recovery,” the Ministry noted.
